See the ‘Market Data’ post.
Good evening,
Equity markets continue to whipsaw, with major indices swinging between gains and losses in recent sessions amid shifting rate expectations and mixed data. Investors are increasingly betting on a Fed rate cut in September, with futures now pricing in a 95% probability for a 25bp reduction, reinforcing market optimism and supporting risk assets today.
In currency markets, the € rose 0.7% against the dollar, driven by increasing rate-cut expectations and has accumulated a 12.6% appreciation YTD. The € is also 5.5% stronger against the £ and ¥ this year. Crude oil maintains its downward trend, lower by nearly 2% again today, weighed by oversupply concerns and easing geopolitical tensions, making energy the worst-performing equity sector over the past week.
Investors are closely watching for last-minute headlines as Trump’s tariff deadline approaches on Thursday. The President followed through on his warning to penalise India over Russian oil purchases, announcing an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports, doubling the levy they already face. In tariff-related business news, Apple, having already committed $500bn to US investments, plans to unveil an additional $100bn pledge, and shares jumped 5%.
On the geopolitical front, Trump warned that Russia must reach a peace deal with Ukraine soon or face severe economic penalties following a three-hour meeting between his special envoy Steve Witkoff and Putin, an event Trump described as highly productive and added that he plans to meet with Putin.
Earnings: Overall sentiment was mostly positive with top and bottom beats from Uber, McDonald’s, Disney and Siemens Energy, with Uber’s $20bn share buyback announcement as the main update.
Shopify (mcap $200bn) reported strong quarterly revenue growth with $2.68bn in sales and gross merchandise volume up 30% YoY to $88bn. It missed on adjusted earnings, $338mn up 16% YoY, but the market focused on the strong sales momentum, resilient demand across regions, and bullish guidance, and shares rallied 22% to an all-time high.
Novo Nordisk (mcap $207bn) reported lower revenues than expected as sales of its diabetes drugs, including Ozempic, slowed sharply, growing by 8% in H1 as it lost market share to Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro drug. Last week, Novo reduced its full-year sales forecast. Shares fell 4% today and are 47% lower YTD.
Airbnb (mcap $80bn) reported after the close, beat sales (+13% YoY) and profit estimates, gross bookings grew 11%, it maintained its full-year guidance and launched a $6bn buyback. However, the upbeat Q2 numbers were overshadowed by softer outlook signals and margin caution, and shares fell ~5% in extended trading.
Economics: An otherwise uneventful day for data. €-zone retail sales rose 3.1% YoY in June, well above forecasts and the strongest reading since September, with robust non-food and fuel spending reinforcing the view that domestic consumption is supporting the economy amid trade uncertainty.
Central Banks: The Reserve Bank of India kept its benchmark rate steady at 5.5% as expected, in a unanimous decision, its lowest level in three years. The inflation outlook was revised downward to 3.1% for fiscal year 2026, supported by a sharp decline to 2.1% in June, the lowest reading in six years. The GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 6.5%, despite external pressures from U.S. tariff threats.
Deals: Swiss pharma giant Novartis (mcap $221bn) has made a takeover approach for San Diego-based Avidity Biosciences (mcap $5.7bn), a rare disease-focused biotech. Avidity shares rallied 25% today to $45 and accumulated a 64% gain this year. It was listed 5-yrs ago at $18. Large pharmaceutical companies have agreed deals worth nearly $80bn YTD, compared with $45bn during all of 2024.
Blackstone plans to acquire Japan’s TechnoPro Holdings (mcap $3.4bn), a technology-services provider, via a tender offer worth $3.5bn, its largest investment ever in Japan. The world's largest alternative asset manager has also agreed to buy Texas-based energy data and analytics provider Enverus from private equity firm Hellman & Friedman for ~$6.5bn.
IPOs: HeartFlow (HTFL), a California–based medical technology founded in 2007 and backed by Bain Capital, aims to raise $300mn at a $1.5bn valuation in a Nasdaq listing. It specialises in AI-driven diagnostics for coronary artery disease. Price guidance: $17-18.
See you tomorrow.
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