See the ‘Market Data’ post.
Leading US stock indices rose to fresh highs, following a busy week for trade deals and earnings. The S&P 500 finished the week 1.5% higher with five consecutive record closes, its first such run in over a year. On the tariff front, Trump is scheduled to meet EU leaders on Sunday, as Brussels aims to seal a deal with similar levies to the one with Japan. However, Japan went a step further and agreed to invest $550bn in US projects across strategic industries, including energy, semiconductor manufacturing and shipbuilding. Regarding trade negotiations with Canada, Trump said talks were not progressing well.
The $ index finished a touch firmer on Friday but fell almost 1% on the week and the Treasury yield curve finished the week flatter by just a few basis points with 10-yr yields at 4.39%.
Notable movers: In stocks, Intel (mcap $90bn), the biggest mover on our Succinct 200 universe, fell 8.5% today and 10.4% on the week, after it warned of exiting chip manufacturing (foundry) if it fails to secure a major customer and announced it would cut 15% of staff.
In commodities, US natural gas declined 13% WTD to the lowest level since November driven by record output, increased LNG exports and cooler weather forecasts.
Earnings: the highlight was Charter Communications (mcap $42bn) which fell 19%, its worst day ever, to a one-year low, after missing earnings estimates. Charter lost 117k broadband subscribers, much more than expected and was not able to replace them with new mobile phone lines. Management confirmed ongoing investment in mobile growth, rural broadband expansion, and the pending Cox Comm merger, but offered no guidance on near-term subscriber nor details on the merger.
Others reporting today included HCA Healthcare, AON and First Citizens BancShares, all beating top and bottom estimates. Health insurer Centene Corp, significantly missed on earnings and revenues fell sharply but managed to convince analysts with a positive outlook and shares ended 6% higher after an initial selloff.
Economics: Friday was light on the data front. US durable goods orders in June fell sharply, -9.3% MoM, marginally better than expected and the second monthly decline of the year. However, excluding aerospace, underlying activity remains solid, with continued gains across machinery, electronics, auto equipment, and other sub-sectors, suggesting capex is holding up despite trade policy uncertainty.
In other markets, Japan’s Tokyo CPI (and core) inflation decelerated to 2.9% while Brazil’s IPCA remains steady at 5.3%.
Monetary Policy: Russia’s central bank cut its rates by 200bps to 18% as expected, marking the second consecutive reduction amid improving inflation (9.2% YoY in June). Week ahead: the Fed (97% changes of no rate change), Bank of Canada and Bank of Japan meet next Wednesday.
Corporate Deals: Regional banks Pinnacle Financial (mcap $7.1bn) and Synovus Financial (mcap $6.9bn) will merge in an all-stock deal valued at $8.6bn. Synovus shareholder will own 48.5% of the new entity. The terms represented a 10% premium to Synovus indisturbed price at the time of the announcement. The deal will create the highest-performing regional bank focused on the fastest-growth markets in the Southeast. Shares on both banks plunged ~12% today.
IPOs: Go Residential REIT was the first corporate to list on the Toronto Stock Exchange this year. It raised $410mn, was priced at $15 and significantly oversubscribed. I had a weak debut with a ~3% drop.
That’s all for this week. Enjoy your weekend.
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